Daily Reflection 2.17.21
Feb. 17th, 2021 07:33 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
readoldthingsToday, a more difficult passage. Sun Tzu tells us that:
I struggled to figure out what to do with this one, which is why this is being posted later in the day than usual. It finally came together when I remembered the title of Chapter 4, which is (in translation): Tactical Dispositions.
Now, in military terminology, tactics refers to methods of winning specific engagements, strategy to an army's overall goal. Keeping that in mind, we can see that Sun Tzu's methods given here are not intended to refer to our overall goal, but to those individual steps along the way.
For example:
A goal might be to-- oh, I don't know-- write a daily blog whose subject is ancient authors and how their wisdom may be applied to life in the modern world. This is part of strategy.
On a particular day, one might come across a difficult passage in an older text, and struggle to figure out how to apply it. Sun Tzu tells us that we begin our engagements with Measurement, but that Measurement "owes its existence to Earth." Earth, let us recall, refers to the terrain on which any given engagement will take place: In this case, a Dreamwidth blog.
Having surveyed the terrain, we engage the method, first by Measurement. Our translator, Lionel Giles, tells us that this refers to a general survey of the ground-- we've already done this, by naming our ground as "a blog post on Dreamwidth." Estimation of quantity derives from this and refers to an estimation of the size of the Enemy's force. Since our goal is a daily blog post, our Enemy is time; we can see that, as the current time is ten til 7, EST, the enemy has a little more than 5 ours at his disposal.
Distinguishing between Estimation of quantity and Calculation is a bit difficult, as both our English translator and earlier Chinese commentators noted. It may be worth mentioning that I was hoping to knock this post out during the brief open time available while my wife was giving the baby a bath. I failed, and just prior to these sentences I had a one year old girl attempt to jump up onto my computer and steal my mousepad. (This is her new favorite game). A better Estimation of quantity would have factored the baby in among enemy forces, as a source of distraction, while Calculation would have noted that there is, at the present time, only one baby.
Finally, we are able to balance our chances. My wife is currently putting a diaper and pajamas onto the baby on the other side of the living room; to judge by her cries, she has never worn clothes before and finds the entire affair to be some sort of torture. Oh, nevermind, one of her toys is playing a song, all is well. I have, perhaps, half a minute before she remembers the mousepad. Can I do it?
If you are reading this blog post, then we have achieved Victory.
In respect of military method, we have, firstly, Measurement; secondly, estimation of quantity; thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances; fifthly, Victory.
Measurement owes its existence to Earth; Estimation of quantity to Measurement; Calculation to Estimation of quantity; balancing of chances to Calculation; and Victory to Balancing of chances.
Measurement owes its existence to Earth; Estimation of quantity to Measurement; Calculation to Estimation of quantity; balancing of chances to Calculation; and Victory to Balancing of chances.
I struggled to figure out what to do with this one, which is why this is being posted later in the day than usual. It finally came together when I remembered the title of Chapter 4, which is (in translation): Tactical Dispositions.
Now, in military terminology, tactics refers to methods of winning specific engagements, strategy to an army's overall goal. Keeping that in mind, we can see that Sun Tzu's methods given here are not intended to refer to our overall goal, but to those individual steps along the way.
For example:
A goal might be to-- oh, I don't know-- write a daily blog whose subject is ancient authors and how their wisdom may be applied to life in the modern world. This is part of strategy.
On a particular day, one might come across a difficult passage in an older text, and struggle to figure out how to apply it. Sun Tzu tells us that we begin our engagements with Measurement, but that Measurement "owes its existence to Earth." Earth, let us recall, refers to the terrain on which any given engagement will take place: In this case, a Dreamwidth blog.
Having surveyed the terrain, we engage the method, first by Measurement. Our translator, Lionel Giles, tells us that this refers to a general survey of the ground-- we've already done this, by naming our ground as "a blog post on Dreamwidth." Estimation of quantity derives from this and refers to an estimation of the size of the Enemy's force. Since our goal is a daily blog post, our Enemy is time; we can see that, as the current time is ten til 7, EST, the enemy has a little more than 5 ours at his disposal.
Distinguishing between Estimation of quantity and Calculation is a bit difficult, as both our English translator and earlier Chinese commentators noted. It may be worth mentioning that I was hoping to knock this post out during the brief open time available while my wife was giving the baby a bath. I failed, and just prior to these sentences I had a one year old girl attempt to jump up onto my computer and steal my mousepad. (This is her new favorite game). A better Estimation of quantity would have factored the baby in among enemy forces, as a source of distraction, while Calculation would have noted that there is, at the present time, only one baby.
Finally, we are able to balance our chances. My wife is currently putting a diaper and pajamas onto the baby on the other side of the living room; to judge by her cries, she has never worn clothes before and finds the entire affair to be some sort of torture. Oh, nevermind, one of her toys is playing a song, all is well. I have, perhaps, half a minute before she remembers the mousepad. Can I do it?
If you are reading this blog post, then we have achieved Victory.
V is for
Date: 2021-02-18 08:22 am (UTC)One suggestion for what, perhaps, the difference between Estimation and Calculation might be-- and also possibly a different nuance for what "Balancing of Chances" might mean from your explication of it.
Whereas "Measurement" is collecting certain data about both sides on this particular terrain, "Estimation" could be the stage of best guesses and informed opinions based on the Measurements just made. It does seem useful to know the difference between these two things, the "known knowns" and the "known unknowns". (Not much one can do about the "unknown unknowns" other than work for more accurate techniques of Measurement and wiser discernment in Estimation.)
"Calculation", it seems to me, could be taking that Estimation of enemy and friendly forces, and gaming out the likely outcomes of their meeting given various courses of action likely to be employed by both sides. The wargaming stage.
"Balancing Of Chances" would be choosing one's tactics for the coming battle from among these models, adding up pros and cons and likelihoods of various ways the events could play out to choose an optimal plan which effectively prepares for the most contingencies-- as in "balancing the chances (of various outcomes coming to pass during the battle)". In battle, while a wise general may have planned ahead for conceivable outcome, they still can't know ahead of time what particular set of events will actually play out-- chance is still a factor at play in every battle.
So "Victory" is, of course, the result of choosing the best tactics when Balancing the Chances of various outcomes, which were understood by Calculations calculated after Estimations of the relative forces available to all sides, estimated from the concrete Measurements of starting conditions. It's kind of funny that nowhere in this list (measure, estimate, calculate, balance forces, victory) is there the actual stage where the forces meet and fight. But that makes sense, given Sun Tzu's philosophy that a wise general only fights when they have the course to victory.
In the example you gave of the Battle of the Blog, it seems you did not have the chance to Balance your Chances properly due to mistakes made in the Estimation or Measurement stages, and so Victory was far from certain. However you had a stroke of luck with one of your side's troops (your child's musical toy) coming into play at the last minute. Thus you survived to live another day, and you're able to learn from the experience, now able to assess the various outcomes with a bit more foresight next time. :-)
no subject
Date: 2021-02-20 11:11 pm (UTC)