VICTORY!!! Awe inspiring. Spoken from one who can empathize. :-)
One suggestion for what, perhaps, the difference between Estimation and Calculation might be-- and also possibly a different nuance for what "Balancing of Chances" might mean from your explication of it.
Whereas "Measurement" is collecting certain data about both sides on this particular terrain, "Estimation" could be the stage of best guesses and informed opinions based on the Measurements just made. It does seem useful to know the difference between these two things, the "known knowns" and the "known unknowns". (Not much one can do about the "unknown unknowns" other than work for more accurate techniques of Measurement and wiser discernment in Estimation.)
"Calculation", it seems to me, could be taking that Estimation of enemy and friendly forces, and gaming out the likely outcomes of their meeting given various courses of action likely to be employed by both sides. The wargaming stage.
"Balancing Of Chances" would be choosing one's tactics for the coming battle from among these models, adding up pros and cons and likelihoods of various ways the events could play out to choose an optimal plan which effectively prepares for the most contingencies-- as in "balancing the chances (of various outcomes coming to pass during the battle)". In battle, while a wise general may have planned ahead for conceivable outcome, they still can't know ahead of time what particular set of events will actually play out-- chance is still a factor at play in every battle.
So "Victory" is, of course, the result of choosing the best tactics when Balancing the Chances of various outcomes, which were understood by Calculations calculated after Estimations of the relative forces available to all sides, estimated from the concrete Measurements of starting conditions. It's kind of funny that nowhere in this list (measure, estimate, calculate, balance forces, victory) is there the actual stage where the forces meet and fight. But that makes sense, given Sun Tzu's philosophy that a wise general only fights when they have the course to victory.
In the example you gave of the Battle of the Blog, it seems you did not have the chance to Balance your Chances properly due to mistakes made in the Estimation or Measurement stages, and so Victory was far from certain. However you had a stroke of luck with one of your side's troops (your child's musical toy) coming into play at the last minute. Thus you survived to live another day, and you're able to learn from the experience, now able to assess the various outcomes with a bit more foresight next time. :-)
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timeasmymeasure
V is for
Date: 2021-02-18 08:22 am (UTC)One suggestion for what, perhaps, the difference between Estimation and Calculation might be-- and also possibly a different nuance for what "Balancing of Chances" might mean from your explication of it.
Whereas "Measurement" is collecting certain data about both sides on this particular terrain, "Estimation" could be the stage of best guesses and informed opinions based on the Measurements just made. It does seem useful to know the difference between these two things, the "known knowns" and the "known unknowns". (Not much one can do about the "unknown unknowns" other than work for more accurate techniques of Measurement and wiser discernment in Estimation.)
"Calculation", it seems to me, could be taking that Estimation of enemy and friendly forces, and gaming out the likely outcomes of their meeting given various courses of action likely to be employed by both sides. The wargaming stage.
"Balancing Of Chances" would be choosing one's tactics for the coming battle from among these models, adding up pros and cons and likelihoods of various ways the events could play out to choose an optimal plan which effectively prepares for the most contingencies-- as in "balancing the chances (of various outcomes coming to pass during the battle)". In battle, while a wise general may have planned ahead for conceivable outcome, they still can't know ahead of time what particular set of events will actually play out-- chance is still a factor at play in every battle.
So "Victory" is, of course, the result of choosing the best tactics when Balancing the Chances of various outcomes, which were understood by Calculations calculated after Estimations of the relative forces available to all sides, estimated from the concrete Measurements of starting conditions. It's kind of funny that nowhere in this list (measure, estimate, calculate, balance forces, victory) is there the actual stage where the forces meet and fight. But that makes sense, given Sun Tzu's philosophy that a wise general only fights when they have the course to victory.
In the example you gave of the Battle of the Blog, it seems you did not have the chance to Balance your Chances properly due to mistakes made in the Estimation or Measurement stages, and so Victory was far from certain. However you had a stroke of luck with one of your side's troops (your child's musical toy) coming into play at the last minute. Thus you survived to live another day, and you're able to learn from the experience, now able to assess the various outcomes with a bit more foresight next time. :-)